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Winning Score

Guides

Guides & Analysis

How to watch, the format, fixtures and stats-driven stories — the pieces that stay useful all tournament long.

How to watch (3)

Format (4)

Schedule (1)

Data story (25)

Fans watch the match from the stands in a floodlit stadium at night
Data story

Brazil 1-2 Norway — When the Better Team Goes Home

Brazil built 2.73 xG to Norway 0.84 and still lost 1-2, out in the last 16. We leaned Brazil at 51 percent before kickoff and the result missed completely.

Wed 8 Jul
A stadium floodlight tower silhouetted against a burning golden sunset, light breaking through the clouds before an evening match
Data story

France vs Morocco QF Preview — The 2022 Rematch

World Cup 2026 quarter-final — France, scorers of 14, meet a Morocco unbeaten in 90 minutes: the 2022 rematch, and the one thing the market number can't see.

Wed 8 Jul
A packed open-air stadium full of fans under bright floodlights on a big-match night
Data story

Norway vs England QF — The Ghost of 1981

World Cup 2026 QF: Haaland's Norway, fresh from beating Brazil, meet an England chasing a first trophy since 1966 — and where the number leans.

Wed 8 Jul
Folarin Balogun, United States forward, during a FIFA World Cup 2026 match
Data story

How FIFA Cleared Balogun to Face Belgium

Balogun was sent off against Bosnia, yet FIFA used Article 27 to suspend his ban so he can face Belgium in the last 16, as Belgium and UEFA object.

Mon 6 Jul
A goalkeeper's glove stretches up to block a shot in close-up during a match
Data story

Portugal vs Spain: The Wall That Hasn't Cracked

Spain haven't conceded in four games; Unai Simón's 519 clean-sheet minutes are a World Cup record. In this Round of 16 Iberian derby, can Portugal break it?

Sat 4 Jul
A floodlit football stadium at night, the stands wrapping around the pitch before a big match
Data story

Brazil vs Norway: The Ghost of 1998

The only time Brazil met Norway at a World Cup, in 1998, Brazil lost. In the 2026 Round of 16, a back line that conceded once in four games meets Haaland.

Fri 3 Jul
A packed stadium of fans cheering during a major football match
Data story

Brazil 2-1 Japan — Held in stoppage time

Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the World Cup 2026 round of 32. Japan led at half-time; a Martinelli winner settled it in stoppage time. Our call: Held, but barely.

Wed 1 Jul
Football supporters fill a packed stadium, waving flags and roaring at a major knockout match
Data story

France vs Sweden: The Knockout Where +8 Lies

World Cup 2026 Round of 32: France arrive unbeaten on +8, Sweden scraped in after a 1-5 loss — but a knockout is one night, and here's what the number misses.

Tue 30 Jun
A packed night stadium with fans raising their arms at a major football match
Data story

Brazil vs Japan: The Giant-Killer Returns

Japan beat Brazil for the first time ever 8 months ago. Now they meet in the World Cup 2026 Round of 32, with Brazil missing Raphinha and Neymar on the bench.

Mon 29 Jun
A footballer in a red kit runs with arms outstretched celebrating a goal in front of a packed terrace
Data story

Norway 3-2 Senegal — the red card that never came

Norway beat Senegal 3-2 as the numbers leaned, and Haaland's brace sent them through. But the red card we feared from a strict referee never came — class did.

Thu 25 Jun
A packed stadium of football fans waving flags and roaring during a major match
Data story

Norway vs France: The Game Where the Stars May Sit

Both already through, so the Group I World Cup 2026 finale only decides top spot. France draw to win it, Norway must win. The variable is who rotates.

Wed 24 Jun
African football supporters beating drums and waving flags in the stands on a matchday
Data story

Norway vs Senegal: A Win-or-Bust Night

Norway lead at 41% over Senegal in a Group I clash at World Cup 2026. Haaland can clinch; a cornered side and a card-happy referee are what the number misses.

Mon 22 Jun
Mexico players in home kit celebrating a goal in front of a packed stand
Data story

Mexico 1-0 South Korea: Right Call, Wrong Reason

Mexico beat South Korea 1-0 as the numbers leaned, but not for the altitude we flagged. Korea had the ball and the better xG, yet still lost to one error.

Sun 21 Jun
Indoor football stadium with a closed roof and floodlights illuminating the green pitch
Data story

Netherlands vs Sweden: Group F's Decider

Netherlands are 57% market favourites, but Sweden top Group F after a 5-1 rout, and the variable that may decide it is NRG Stadium's closed roof in Houston.

Sat 20 Jun
A packed Mexican football stadium filled with passionate fans on a matchday
Data story

Mexico vs South Korea: The Fight for Group A

Mexico host South Korea as 48% favorites in a Group A decider at World Cup 2026 — but 28°C heat and 1,670m altitude at Estadio Akron are what the number misses.

Thu 18 Jun
A goalkeeper at full stretch catching the ball in mid-air in front of the goal
Data story

Cape Verde Held Spain Scoreless 0-0

Cape Verde, a nation of about 500,000, drew 0-0 with European champions Spain on their 2026 World Cup debut as Spain took 27 shots for 2.16 xG yet scored none.

Tue 16 Jun
The red seats of a modern football stadium looking down over the pitch before kickoff
Data story

Germany Won 7-1 But Curaçao Made History

Germany beat Curaçao 7-1 in their 2026 World Cup opener, but the goal that mattered was their first ever, from Comenencia past 40-year-old Neuer.

Tue 16 Jun
A modern football stadium under floodlights at night with players warming up by the touchline
Data story

Son Didn't Score. Korea Won Anyway.

South Korea beat Czechia 2-1 in their 2026 World Cup opener even though Son Heung-min did not score, as Hwang In-beom and a feverish Oh Hyeon-gyu won it.

Tue 16 Jun
A large football stadium packed with fans before kickoff
Data story

Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup? The Data

The biggest names rarely lift the trophy. A data look at FIFA rankings, squad depth, age, the 48-team grind, and the models on who has the real goods in 2026.

Tue 16 Jun
Empty football stadium stands under a grey overcast sky, no spectators
Data story

Why Italy Missed the 2026 World Cup Again

A four-time world champion misses out for a third straight time. Inside the Bosnia playoff loss, the Group I numbers, and the deeper Serie A roots.

Tue 16 Jun
Two footballers jumping to contest the ball in mid-air during a match
Data story

World Cup 2026 Players to Watch: The Data

Not just big names. The players who will define World Cup 2026, read through real club form: Mbappe, Yamal, Bellingham, a 17-year-old, and the farewells.

Tue 16 Jun
Football fans waving national flags of many colours in a World Cup stadium
Data story

4 Debutant Nations the 48-Team World Cup Let In

Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan reach their first World Cup. Inside the profiles, qualifying routes, and 48-team slot maths that opened the door.

Sun 14 Jun
A player in green clenching his fists to celebrate a goal on the pitch
Data story

World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Race

Who leads the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot race now, the tiebreaker rules most fans misread, the record to beat, and the contenders. Updated by matchday.

Sat 13 Jun
High-angle view of a football stadium at night, floodlit during a match
Data story

The Real Group of Death at World Cup 2026

Which group is the real Group of Death at World Cup 2026? We rank all 12 by FIFA points: the group called easy is the tightest, and a famous one is lopsided.

Sat 13 Jun
A player in red sprinting with arms wide to celebrate a goal
Data story

Are Minnows Toppling Giants More Often? The Data

Is the World Cup still ruled by 5-6 giants? The data on upsets, the closing FIFA-ranking gap, the biggest shocks, and whether the 48-team format helps minnows.

Sat 13 Jun

History (4)

Legends (3)

Travel (2)